The Polish Bank Association (ZBP) has released figures that likely made more than a few bankers wince. Net profit across Poland's entire banking sector is expected to fall by roughly 29-30 percent in 2026 - from nearly PLN 49 billion earned in 2025 to around PLN 35 billion. It's the largest one-off correction to the sector's results in years, and the cause is no secret: the government's increase of the corporate tax (CIT) rate for banks from 19 to 30 percent, in force since the start of 2026.
Where the decline comes from
According to ZBP's calculations, the higher CIT rate accounts for 35-40 percent of the entire negative trend in bank earnings. That's the single largest factor, but not the only one. Another roughly 25 percent of the decline is explained by falling interest rates, which compress net interest margin - the main source of bank income from loans and deposits. The remaining roughly 25 percent comes from rising operating costs: wages, technology, regulation, and mandatory contributions to sector funds.
The scale of this shift is already visible in first-half 2026 figures. The sector's net result for that period came to PLN 21.4 billion, almost 9 percent less year-on-year. And that's not even the full effect of the CIT increase yet - the second half of the year will show more, as banks are still adjusting to the new tax regime.
Not every bank has suffered equally
It's worth noting the picture isn't uniformly bleak. Despite the sector-wide pressure, mBank posted the best result in its history - proof that individual institutions can still grow in a tougher regulatory environment if they have a well-diversified business and keep costs under control. Bank Pekao, meanwhile, earned PLN 1.52 billion in net profit in the second quarter of 2026 - less than a year earlier, but clearly above analysts' forecasts. In other words: the sector as a whole is slowing down, but not every player is slowing at the same pace.
What does this mean for the average bank customer?
This is where it gets relevant for most of us - ZBP's numbers aren't just material for stock analysts, they're a real signal of what to expect the next time you open your banking app.
Account fees and add-on services
When tax takes a bigger bite out of bank profits, the natural instinct for management is to look for ways to rebuild profitability elsewhere. Historically, one of the first places banks look in this situation is fees - for account maintenance, cards, international transfers, or withdrawals from other networks' ATMs. That doesn't mean an automatic wave of fee hikes tomorrow - banks compete with each other and know customers can easily compare offers and switch - but pressure on fee structures over the coming quarters will be real. It's a good moment to check whether your current account is still competitive, for instance by browsing the ranking of the best personal accounts and comparing it with what you have now.
Margins on personal loans and mortgages
The second area where the effect of higher CIT and lower rates could be felt is lending margins. To keep return on equity (ROE) at a level acceptable to shareholders, banks may raise the margins added on top of the reference rate for new loans - both personal loans and mortgages. In practice, this means that even as benchmark rates fall, the total cost of a loan for the customer doesn't necessarily drop at the same pace, because the bank offsets the difference with a wider margin. If you're planning to take out a personal loan for renovations or considering a mortgage, this means one thing: it pays to compare offers carefully, since the gap between banks could widen in the coming months. Before signing anything, check the current comparison on the best personal loans page - a difference of just a few percentage points in margin on a loan of several tens of thousands of złoty can translate into real hundreds of złoty a year.
Rates on deposits and savings accounts
The third front is savings. Banks earn money on the spread between what they pay on deposits and what they charge on loans. When pressure on results rises from two directions at once - a higher tax and lower rates - one of the simplest ways to defend margin is to slow the pace at which deposit and savings account rates rise (or speed up the pace at which they fall). For anyone keeping savings in a bank, this means it's worth watching the market more actively than usual - promotional offers, high rates on fresh funds, or short-term deposits may appear and disappear faster than before, depending on which bank currently needs an inflow of deposits. Regularly checking the best deposits ranking and the best savings accounts ranking is no longer just a curiosity - it's a real way to defend the real value of your savings.
The pace of digital investment
A fourth, less visible consequence concerns the pace at which banks invest in developing mobile apps, new instant-payment features, customer service automation, and anti-fraud protection. Lower net profit means fewer own funds available for investment and potentially more cautious budgets for the years ahead. That doesn't necessarily mean a step backward - Polish banks remain among the digitalization leaders in Europe - but realistically, the pace of new feature rollouts is likely to slow, with priority shifting to projects with the fastest return on investment rather than the ones most impressive to customers.
What you should do
For the average bank customer, the most important takeaway from ZBP's report is a practical one: the banking market is entering a period of greater cost pressure, and that usually feeds through into the offer sooner or later - through fees, margins, or deposit rates. That's no reason to panic or switch banks overnight, but it's a clear signal to pay closer attention than usual. Regularly comparing offers - both on loans and on savings - stops being just good practice and becomes a real tool for protecting your own budget at a time when banks will be looking for ways to rebuild profitability. Start by checking the current account, loan, and deposit rankings on BankSorter - a few minutes that could translate into real savings over the coming months.