NBP Governor Signals Possible September Rate Cut
A possible interest rate cut — words the market had not heard in months — were spoken at the press conference following July's Monetary Policy Council (RPP) meeting. NBP Governor Adam Glapinski said outright that he does not rule out submitting a motion to cut rates at the very first RPP meeting after the summer break, in September 2026. The Council itself held rates steady on 8 July — the NBP reference rate remains at 3.75%, the deposit rate at 3.25%, and the lombard rate at 4.25% — but it was the governor's forward-looking remark that stirred analysts and investors.
The market reaction came quickly. On Friday, 24 July, shares of Poland's largest listed banks — PKO Bank Polski, Alior Bank and Erste Bank Polska (formerly Santander Bank Polska) — hit record highs on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. Investors read the governor's comments as confirmation that the economy is heading for a soft landing — inflation is approaching target, wage pressure is easing, and the Council has fewer and fewer reasons to keep the cost of money at its current level.
Four quiet months before a possible move
To understand why this remark matters, it helps to recall what came before. The RPP last cut rates in March 2026, when the reference rate fell by 25 basis points to today's 3.75%. Since then, the Council has held rates steady for four meetings in a row — April, May, June and July — waiting for clear confirmation that inflation is durably heading toward target. A September motion would therefore be the first real move in half a year.
25 basis points, not more
It is worth tempering expectations right away: this is not talk of a revolution in interest rates. The governor pointed to a possible cut of 0.25 percentage points — exactly what the Council trimmed in its March decision. That is a small change on any single loan instalment or deposit, but it is a meaningful signal of the direction monetary policy could take in the second half of the year.
Still only a signal, not a decision
It is important to remember that the NBP governor is just one of ten members of the Monetary Policy Council and cannot decide alone. Glapinski himself admitted he does not know whether his eventual motion would win majority support. He described the mood among Council members as cautiously dovish — open to further policy easing, but in no hurry and with no guarantees. A great deal could still change before the September meeting.
The condition you should not forget: geopolitics and the budget
The governor clearly tied any potential cut to a caveat: the geopolitical situation must not deteriorate. NBP statements have repeated the same risk for months — the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which affects energy commodity prices and, through them, imported inflation. A second source of uncertainty is Poland's fiscal policy — a high budget deficit that is itself inflationary and could complicate the Council's calculations.
In other words, a September rate cut is a plausible scenario, but a clearly conditional one. Anyone planning their household finances around this announcement should treat it as a possibility, not a certainty.
What this signal means for your wallet today
Have savings? This could be a good moment for a term deposit
If you are keeping cash in a low-interest personal account, the rate-cut signal is a concrete reason to act now, rather than after the fact. A term deposit locks in its interest rate for the entire contract period, regardless of what the RPP does in September. If you sign a six-month deposit today and the Council does cut rates in September, your terms stay exactly as agreed until the deposit matures. That is the opposite of a savings account, whose variable rate a bank can lower within days of an RPP decision — sometimes faster than you can react.
It is worth comparing current term deposit offers now to see whether locking funds away for 3, 6 or 12 months would beat leaving them in a savings account. If liquidity matters more to you and you want access to your money at any time, compare savings account offers too — some banks run promotional, boosted rates for the first few months, which can offset a lower base rate.
Have a variable-rate loan? Do not count on your instalment shrinking yet
If you are repaying a mortgage or cash loan linked to WIBOR or the newer POLSTR benchmark, a September cut — if it happens at all — will not feed through to your instalment immediately. Loans based on WIBOR 3M or 6M reset only once a quarter or every six months, so you would only feel the effect at the next reset. POLSTR 1M-based loans react faster, resetting monthly, but that is still a matter of weeks, not an instant change.
Nor should you assume that 0.25 percentage points will transform your household budget. On a PLN 400,000 mortgage, a cut of that size typically translates into a few dozen zlotys a month — noticeable, but not game-changing.
Planning a new loan? What matters is today, not an autumn forecast
If you are weighing a cash loan or a mortgage, it is not worth delaying your decision while waiting for September. The gap in margins and fees between banks today is far larger than the potential effect of a single 25-basis-point rate cut. Rather than waiting on an uncertain scenario, check current cash loan and mortgage offers — a well-chosen deal with a lower margin can save you more than the entire potential rate cut ever would.
What should you do now?
- If you have spare cash sitting in a low-interest account, compare term deposits and consider locking part of your savings away for a few months before any rate cut reaches bank offers.
- If liquidity matters to you, check savings accounts with a promotional starting rate.
- If you are repaying a variable-rate loan, do not rebuild your household budget around a decision that has not been made yet. Wait for the September RPP meeting.
- If you are planning a new loan, compare cash loan and mortgage offers now, rather than waiting on an uncertain scenario.
- Keep an eye on NBP and RPP communications — the meeting scheduled for the first week of September will be the one that matters.
Summary
The NBP governor's remark is an important signal, but still only a signal — not a decision. Adam Glapinski opened the door to a 25-basis-point interest rate cut as early as September, conditional on a stable geopolitical situation and inflation staying close to target. The market reacted with enthusiasm, but for the average saver or borrower, what matters is different: today's rate level is still a good moment to lock in a favourable return on savings before banks start trimming their offers.
Do not wait for September with your arms folded — check current term deposits, compare savings accounts, and see whether your money is working as hard as it should.