NBP holds rates steady, but its inflation forecast just moved higher
Poland's Monetary Policy Council (RPP) met on 7-8 July 2026 and, once again, left interest rates unchanged — the reference rate stays at 3.75 percent. At first glance, this is an unsurprising decision, identical to several previous meetings. The real news, however, is something else: the July inflation projection published by the National Bank of Poland (NBP) alongside the decision, which raised the expected 2026 price growth noticeably above what was assumed back in March. For anyone with a mortgage, savings sitting in a deposit, or plans to take out a cash loan, this is a signal worth decoding — it says more about where interest rates are heading than the decision to hold them steady ever could.
What the Council actually decided on 8 July
The decision matched most economists' expectations — the RPP is continuing its "wait and see" policy, holding off on any moves until it has more certainty about where inflation is heading. The reference rate has held at 3.75 percent for months now, and it directly shapes the cost of money across the whole economy — from loan interest rates, through the size of monthly instalments, to the interest paid on deposits and savings accounts.
Interestingly, the NBP president signalled that a single rate cut of 25 basis points (i.e. 0.25 percentage points) is still possible this year. At the same time, the Council's communications make clear that a scenario in which rates stay unchanged all the way through the end of 2026, or even into 2027, is just as likely. That is a meaningful shift from the market's spring expectations, when some analysts were still pricing in a series of cuts before year-end.
What is an NBP inflation projection, and why does it matter
An inflation projection is a forecast the National Bank of Poland prepares a few times a year (March, July, November), showing how the central bank's own analysts expect inflation and economic growth to evolve over the coming years. It is not guesswork — it is an econometric model built on current data, corporate price expectations, labour-market conditions, commodity prices, and the zloty's exchange rate. The RPP treats the projection as one of the main pillars of its decisions, because it shows where inflation is genuinely heading, not just where it stands today.
The July projection raised expected 2026 CPI inflation to a range of 2.4-3.3 percent (roughly 2.9 percent on average), compared with a March projection of 1.6-2.9 percent. That is a clear upward shift — and it, rather than the rate decision itself, is the most important takeaway from this meeting.
The disconnect: current inflation is falling, yet the projection is rising
This is where an apparent paradox comes in, and it is one many readers rightly find puzzling. Preliminary data from Poland's statistical office (GUS) showed CPI inflation falling to 2.5 percent year-on-year in June 2026, down from 3.1 percent in May. Current inflation is clearly cooling — and yet the NBP's full-year projection moved up. How can both be true?
The answer lies in the time horizon. A monthly inflation reading tells you what already happened to prices. The NBP's projection looks forward — across the coming quarters and years — and factors in things that have only just started to bite: planned regulatory changes, cost pressure on businesses, energy and commodity prices, wage growth, and geopolitical risk. In other words, the central bank is saying: things look temporarily better today, but over a horizon of several quarters we now see more factors that could push prices up than we saw back in March. That gap between "here and now" and "a year or two out" is exactly why the RPP is in no hurry to cut — one good monthly reading does not change the overall inflation-risk picture.
What this means if you have a fixed mortgage instalment
If your mortgage has a variable rate (i.e. linked to WIBOR or its successor), holding rates steady means your monthly instalment is unlikely to change in the coming months — neither up nor down. Given the higher inflation projection, that can be either good news or less good news, depending on what change you were hoping for.
- If you were counting on a quick drop in your instalment — the signals from the NBP suggest patience is in order. Even the floated single 25-basis-point cut would not change your instalment dramatically, and it is not even guaranteed this year.
- If you have a periodically fixed rate — the current situation does not affect your instalment until the fixed period ends, but it is worth watching the market now so you know what terms might be available when your rate is renegotiated in a few years.
- If you are only just planning a mortgage — it is worth weighing whether a variable or a periodically fixed rate suits current conditions better. Before deciding, check and compare current mortgage offers to see the real margins and terms across different banks.
Is it worth locking your money into a term deposit right now
This is the question we have been getting most often in recent weeks. There is no single right answer, because it depends on what you expect over the coming months.
On one hand, since the RPP is signalling that rates could stay at their current level through the end of 2026 or beyond, bank deposit rates tied to the market interest rate should remain relatively stable in the short and medium term. That is an argument against waiting indefinitely to place any spare cash — if a rate cut does happen later this year after all, deposits opened later could carry a lower rate than ones opened today.
On the other hand, the higher inflation projection (2.9 percent on average in 2026) means the real return on a deposit — the return after subtracting inflation — may be more modest than it first appears. Before signing anything, it is worth calculating whether the rate a bank is offering genuinely beats expected inflation, rather than just looking at the headline percentage in the advert.
- Consider a shorter-term deposit (e.g. 3-6 months) instead of locking funds away for a year or more — this lets you react faster if market conditions shift.
- Compare a term deposit against a savings account. A savings account usually lets you withdraw at any time, at the cost of a somewhat lower rate — a good compromise if you are not sure when you might need the money.
- Do not keep everything in one place. You can lock part of your savings in for a longer term while leaving part in a savings account as a liquidity buffer.
Before deciding, check current term deposit offers and savings accounts on BankSorter.com — comparing terms across several banks takes only a few minutes, and the rate differences can be surprisingly large.
Planning a cash loan? Here is what to watch for
Stable interest rates also mean relatively stable terms for new cash loans — the APRC (annual percentage rate of charge) on offers available in the market should not swing sharply in either direction over the coming months. This is a good moment to compare offers calmly, rather than acting under pressure to "get in before rates rise" or waiting for a quick cut that is far from certain.
When comparing cash loan offers, look beyond the nominal interest rate and focus above all on the APRC, which also factors in fees and other charges — it is the only figure that lets you fairly compare offers from different banks. A higher inflation projection may also mean banks take a more cautious approach to assessing creditworthiness, so it is worth having your financial documents in order before applying. Comparing available cash loans will help you get a feel for real market conditions before you submit a formal application to any particular bank.
Summary — what you should do
The July RPP meeting does not, by itself, change anything in your budget overnight — rates stay at 3.75 percent, just as before. The real value of this decision lies in the signal buried in the inflation projection: the NBP sees more upside risks to prices over the coming quarters than it did in March, even though the latest inflation reading actually slowed noticeably. That disconnect is exactly why both the central bank and you, as a consumer, should stay cautious.
If you are repaying a mortgage, your instalment stays stable, but do not bank on a quick, guaranteed cut. If you are saving, compare deposit and savings account offers before locking funds away for longer, and work out the real return after inflation. If you are planning a new cash loan, this is a stable moment to calmly compare APRCs across offers. In all three cases, the best first step is a thorough comparison of the products available on the market at BankSorter.com before making any financial decision.