Poland's Monetary Policy Council (RPP) kept the NBP reference rate unchanged at 3.75 percent at its September meeting. For many borrowers, that's a disappointment — just weeks earlier, NBP Governor Adam Glapiński had signalled that a 25 basis point cut was very much on the table, provided the economic situation didn't deteriorate. It deteriorated just enough for the Council to decide it would rather wait. Here's what actually happened, and more importantly, what it means in practice for your loan instalment and your savings interest.
What the Council actually decided
The NBP reference rate stays at 3.75 percent, the deposit rate at 3.25 percent, and the lombard rate at 4.25 percent. This marks the fifth consecutive decision-making meeting at which the Council left monetary policy parameters untouched — the last change came in March, when rates were cut by 25 basis points. Since then, the RPP has consistently held the line, even though markets — and the NBP governor himself, in earlier remarks — had speculated about a possible cut precisely at this point in the autumn.
Why the Council held back
The key reason is inflation, which, instead of clearly slowing, accelerated to 3.0 percent year-on-year in July, up from 2.5 percent the month before. That reversal forced Council members into a more cautious stance — cutting rates while inflation is rising would send the market a signal that the central bank tolerates drifting away from its target. On top of that, a high fiscal deficit planned for 2026 is itself inflationary and narrows the room for loosening monetary policy.
It's worth noting this isn't a full close of the topic — several RPP members stressed in their statements that "we're not in an easing cycle," which economists read as a sign that any future moves will be taken one at a time, in reaction to incoming data, rather than as part of a pre-planned series of cuts. Some analysts, including the economic team at Bank Millennium, have pushed their base-case scenario for the next cut all the way to 2027. Others, such as ING Bank Śląski economists, note that a September cut looked "almost a done deal" not long ago, but the next one will now likely take considerably longer than assumed over the summer.
What it means if you're repaying a loan
For anyone with a mortgage or a cash loan on a variable rate, the news is essentially neutral — your instalment won't rise, but it won't fall in the coming months either. WIBOR, which still underpins part of the loan agreements signed before the benchmark reform, will remain at its current, relatively high level at least through the end of the year. If you were counting on a noticeably lower instalment before year-end, it's worth adjusting that expectation — bank economists currently project NBP rates staying unchanged at least until December.
This is a good moment to stop waiting on the Council's mercy and instead check for yourself whether your loan terms can be improved — either by renegotiating with your current bank or by refinancing elsewhere. Differences in margins and fees between banks are often larger than people assume, and on a loan spread over a decade or more, even a small rate difference adds up to real money. Before deciding anything, compare current mortgage offers — your existing bank may well have stopped being competitive a while ago. The same goes for cash loans: if you're planning to borrow for renovation, a car, or debt consolidation, it's worth checking the cash loan rankings instead of automatically walking into the branch where you already hold an account.
What it means if you're saving
On the other side of the ledger, things look more favourable. Holding rates steady means banks have no immediate formal reason to cut interest on savings accounts and term deposits in the near term — good news if you're building an emergency fund or saving toward a short-term goal. If you'd been putting off opening a deposit for months, expecting rates to drop soon and offers to worsen, that scenario — at least until year-end — isn't playing out.
That doesn't mean you can just sit back, though. Banks regularly rotate their promotional offers, shorten periods of boosted interest, and attach conditions (fresh funds only, an active account, amount caps) that are easy to miss. Instead of leaving your savings in an account earning next to nothing, take a look at the ranking of the best term deposits, or, if you value liquidity and want to withdraw at any time, the comparison of savings accounts. The gap between an average offer and the best one currently on the market often runs to dozens, and on larger balances even hundreds of euros a year — with no extra risk involved.
What happens next with interest rates
The key question is what comes next. The answer depends largely on upcoming inflation readings from the statistics office and on how the fiscal situation develops. The Council has made clear it isn't following a pre-set schedule of cuts — each future decision will be made fresh, based on incoming data. For the average household, that means one thing: the borrowing and deposit conditions we see today will likely hold in roughly their current form through the end of 2026, and possibly longer, if inflation doesn't clearly start slowing down.
What you should do
Rather than waiting on Council decisions that are hard to predict in advance, focus on what you can actually control. If you're repaying a loan, check whether your terms are still competitive. If you're saving, make sure your money is earning the best available rate rather than sitting in an account with no interest at all. The market doesn't change overnight, but individual banks' offers do — and that's exactly where the real saving, or loss, in your household budget is decided, not in the RPP's press releases.