Poland's central bank holds rates again, but the tone has turned hawkish
On 7 October 2026, Poland's Monetary Policy Council (RPP) wrapped up its two-day meeting by keeping the National Bank of Poland's interest rates unchanged. The reference rate stays at 3.75%, the lombard rate at 4.25%, the deposit rate at 3.25%, and the rediscount rate at 3.80%. This was another consecutive meeting without any move, continuing the hold streak that began after the March cut. The last change was a 25 basis point cut on 5 March 2026.
For the millions of Poles repaying mortgages, and for anyone keeping money in savings accounts or term deposits, this decision matters even though it is not immediately visible in any bill or statement. Stable rates do not mean nothing is changing: both the official statement and comments from NBP governor Adam Glapiński suggest the next move could go in the opposite direction from what markets expected only months ago.
Why nobody is talking about a rate cut anymore
A few months ago, the market was debating when the next rate cut would land. That conversation has effectively disappeared, replaced by growing talk of a possible hike instead. The reason is straightforward: according to a flash estimate from Poland's statistical office GUS, September 2026 CPI inflation rose to 4.0% year on year, the highest reading in 15 months. The Council chose not to react to a single stronger print with an immediate hike, but the language of the statement, and of Glapiński himself, was noticeably different from the spring.
The governor described the mood inside the Council as hawkish, central-bank shorthand for being alert to inflation risk and leaning toward tightening rather than further easing. Some economists go further still. Analysts at Credit Agricole do not rule out a 25 basis point hike, to 4.0%, before the end of this year. ING's economists, meanwhile, see a possible 50 basis point hike in early 2027. That is a sharp reversal from the spring consensus, when most forecasters still expected the easing cycle to continue.
What this means if you have a mortgage
For borrowers with variable rate mortgages tied to the WIBOR benchmark, holding rates steady means stable instalments for now. Since rates have not moved since March, WIBOR 3M and WIBOR 6M remain close to recent levels, so monthly payments should not jump overnight. That is welcome news for households that had just gotten used to a predictable budget.
The catch is that financial markets price in expectations ahead of time. If more analysts start pencilling in a hike over the coming months, banks may begin adjusting their offers before the RPP actually acts, pushing up both margins and the rates on new fixed-period mortgages, since pricing a rate for several years forward requires banks to account for where rates are likely headed, not just where they sit today. Anyone planning to take out a mortgage in the coming months should compare current mortgage offers before lenders react to the shift in expectations. The same logic applies to a personal loan for a renovation or a car: it pays to compare loan offers rather than accept the first proposal from your own bank.
What this means for savings and deposits
From a saver's perspective, the picture looks rather different, and arguably more favourable. When rates are flat but the odds of a hike are rising, banks tend to be reluctant to cut deposit rates, since that could push customers toward competitors or other instruments such as bonds. Some institutions may even start nudging up rates on term deposits and savings accounts pre-emptively, trying to attract fresh deposits ahead of any RPP move.
This is a good moment to check whether your own savings account or term deposit is still competitive. Differences between banks in this segment can be large, and promotional rates on new money often expire after a few months, after which the balance quietly reverts to a much lower standard rate. Rather than leaving savings parked at a token rate, it is worth checking a ranking of the best term deposits and comparing current savings accounts every quarter or so, especially with inflation running at 4%, since money sitting idle in an unremunerated account loses real value every month.
Is it worth rushing any financial decisions
The decision to hold rates is not, by itself, a reason to panic. Nothing about your wallet changes today: loan instalments stay where they are, and deposit rates do not move automatically either. But the shift in tone, from a central bank that was openly discussing further cuts in spring to one now flagging a possible hike, is worth factoring into any bigger financial decision over the coming months.
If you are weighing a mortgage refinance, switching from a variable to a fixed-period rate, or choosing between a term deposit and a savings account, it is better to act before the market fully prices in a hike scenario. Once that happens, both loan and deposit offers could look noticeably different, and not always in the borrower's favour.
Summary: what to do now
- NBP rates stayed unchanged after the 7 October 2026 meeting, with the reference rate still at 3.75%, another hold in a row since the March cut.
- September inflation rose to 4.0% year on year, and the Council's hawkish tone has some analysts forecasting a hike as early as late 2026 or early 2027.
- Anyone planning a mortgage or personal loan should compare offers now, before lenders react to the shift in rate expectations.
- Savers should regularly check the rates on their deposits and savings accounts, since competition for deposits among banks could intensify in this environment, to savers' benefit.
Whichever side of the balance sheet you are on, borrower or saver, it pays to keep an eye on the next RPP statements and avoid leaving big financial decisions to the last minute. Check current offers on BankSorter.com and pick a product that actually fits today's market, not last year's.
Sources: wnp.pl (https://www.wnp.pl/rynki/prezes-nbp-podsumowal-decyzje-rpp-rosnie-niepewnosc-glapinski-wskazuje-na-kluczowe-ryzyka,1106891.html), analizy.pl (https://www.analizy.pl/puls-rynku/39411/decyzja-ws-stop-procentowych-marzec-2026), bezprawnik.pl (https://bezprawnik.pl/gus-inflacja-wrzesien-2026/), finwire.pl (https://finwire.pl/artykuly/stopy-procentowe-2027-podwyzka-4-procent-ing-credit-agricole-rata-kredytu), rankomat.pl (https://rankomat.pl/finanse/poradniki/harmonogram-posiedzen-rpp/).