Poland's Central Statistical Office (GUS) released its flash estimate for August inflation today, 31 August 2026 – and it is not good news for household budgets. Consumer prices rose 3.4% year on year and 0.4% month on month, accelerating from 3.0% in July. This is the second consecutive month of rising inflation, and analysts are now openly saying that the disinflation process under way since 2024 has clearly stalled.
What drove prices up
The acceleration was driven above all by fuel prices. Petrol and diesel for private vehicles jumped 24.2% year on year and 5.2% compared with July alone – by far the single biggest driver of August's price increase. The second major factor was electricity and gas bills, up 4.1% year on year. Together these push up heating costs for homes and running costs for businesses, which eventually feed through into the prices of almost everything else.
There is one piece of good news, though it applies to only one spending category. Food and non-alcoholic beverages were 0.9% cheaper year on year, thanks to a good harvest and lower prices for some agricultural commodities. For an average household, which spends a substantial share of its budget on food, that is some relief, but nowhere near enough to offset rising electricity, gas and fuel bills.
Core inflation is the bigger worry
What concerns economists most is not the headline CPI figure but core inflation – the price index excluding the most volatile categories such as food and energy. That measure also accelerated, to roughly 3.2–3.3% year on year. This matters because core inflation is a better gauge of whether price pressure is lasting or just a temporary blip caused by fuel prices. Rising core inflation means businesses are still passing higher costs, for labour, energy and credit, on to the prices of their goods and services, and that is not a phenomenon that disappears overnight.
Some economists note that the August reading pushes back any discussion of interest rate hikes, though some forecasts suggest inflation could still accelerate further in the coming months, potentially reaching around 3.5%, before starting to fall again toward the end of the year. In other words, things may get worse before they get better.
What will the Monetary Policy Council do now
Poland's Monetary Policy Council (RPP) has kept interest rates unchanged since its March cut – the NBP reference rate currently stands at 3.75%, and none of the meetings between April and July 2026 brought any change. Markets had been pricing in a resumption of the rate-cutting cycle at the September meeting (8–9 September), with some analysts, including those at Credit Agricole and ING, even naming a specific scenario: a 25 basis-point cut to 3.50%.
The August data complicates that scenario. The Council looks not only at the headline CPI print but also at core inflation, GDP dynamics, the labour market and the central bank's NECMOD model projections. Accelerating core inflation is an argument for caution – the RPP could still cut rates, betting that inflation will fall again through 2027, or it could just as easily hold off until October or November, waiting to see whether the August jump was truly the peak or the start of a more lasting trend.
What it means for your savings
If you keep money in a current account or a low-interest account, accelerating inflation is bad news – your money is losing real value faster than it was a month ago. At 3.4% inflation, cash sitting with no interest, or the token 0.01% typical of current accounts, loses more than 3% of its purchasing power a year.
This is a good moment to check whether your savings are actually keeping pace with inflation. As long as the RPP holds rates, banks are still offering relatively attractive rates on deposits and savings accounts, but that could change quickly once a rate cut is confirmed. It is worth comparing current term deposit offers and savings accounts before banks start trimming their rates in line with the central bank. Keep in mind that returns on both products are reduced by Poland's 19% capital gains tax, so the real yield is always lower than the advertised rate.
If you have savings you might need in the coming months, shorter deposits, one to three months for example, offer more flexibility today than locking money away for a full year, especially while the direction of interest rates remains uncertain. It is also worth making sure your everyday money is not sitting idle – checking personal account offers makes sense too, since some banks now offer extra perks or cashback that can offset part of the inflation loss.
What it means for borrowers
For anyone repaying a variable-rate loan, still the majority of mortgages and cash loans in Poland, the August figures are a warning sign. Loan instalments depend heavily on WIBOR and the bank's margin, and WIBOR reacts to market expectations about future RPP decisions. If the market concludes that accelerating inflation will push future rate cuts further into the future, WIBOR may stop falling or even edge up slightly, meaning instalments won't come down as quickly as many borrowers were expecting just a few weeks ago.
On the other hand, if the RPP does go ahead with a September cut despite high inflation, treating the August spike as temporary and fuel-driven, variable-rate instalments could still fall, just more slowly than assumed earlier this year. Anyone now considering a cash loan or a mortgage should think carefully about whether it makes sense to wait for the next RPP meeting or to lock in current terms now, particularly if they are weighing a fixed-rate period that protects against rate swings over the next few years.
Summary – what you should do
August's inflation reading is a reminder that Poland's disinflation process is not over, and the road to the NBP's inflation target of 2.5%, with a tolerance band of +/-1 percentage point, is far from straightforward. Before making any financial decision in the coming weeks, it is worth:
- Checking whether your savings are actually earning more than the inflation rate – if not, look for a better-paying account
- Considering shorter deposit terms rather than locking money away for 12 months in an uncertain rate environment
- Watching the RPP's statement after the September meeting (8–9 September) – its wording will say more about the direction of rates than the inflation print alone
- Avoiding rushed loan decisions based on a single data release – it is worth waiting to see whether the trend is confirmed over the coming months
Financial markets will now be watching September's RPP meeting closely. Whatever the Council decides, actively comparing offers, rather than sticking with whatever account or loan you already have, is what gives you a real edge over inflation in a period of uncertain interest rates.