Poland's Ministry of Finance has published its treasury bond offer for October 2026, and there were no surprises — interest rates on the main retail series have been left unchanged for a sixth consecutive month, dating back to April. The catch is that, over the same period, the flash estimate from Poland's statistics office (GUS) showed September inflation hitting 4.0 percent year-on-year, the highest reading in over a year and a clear jump from August's 3.4 percent. Frozen rates plus rising inflation is a simple equation every bondholder should be running for themselves right now.
What the new Finance Ministry offer actually shows
Sales of the October series opened on 1 October, with a single bond priced at the standard 100 zloty. The individual rates break down as follows: the three-month OTS0127 bond pays a fixed 2.00 percent annually; the one-year ROR1027 pays 4.00 percent in its first period, then switches to a variable rate tracking the NBP reference rate with no added margin. The two-year DOR1028 starts at 4.15 percent (the reference rate plus a 0.15 percentage point margin), the three-year TOS1029 is a fixed 4.40 percent, and the four-year COI1030 pays 4.75 percent in its first year, then inflation plus a 1.50 percentage point margin afterwards.
All of this sounds stable, but "stable" is not the same as "favourable." The ministry hasn't raised a single rate since April, even though the broader economic picture has shifted noticeably in that time — inflation has accelerated, and the Monetary Policy Council (RPP), at the meeting that concluded on 9 September, held the NBP reference rate at 3.75 percent for the sixth meeting running. In short: the cost of money in the economy is standing still, while prices at the shops and petrol stations are not.
Real returns are getting thinner
What matters to a bondholder isn't the nominal rate but the real return — what's left once inflation is subtracted. If a one-year bond pays 4.00 percent and inflation runs at 4.0 percent, your capital is, at best, treading water in real terms: you're not growing your money, you're merely defending it from losing value, and only for the first year, since many series switch to variable rates afterwards that depend on future readings. Shorter-term paper, like the three-month OTS0127 at 2.00 percent, doesn't even keep pace with current inflation — your savings lose real value even as the nominal balance ticks up.
None of this means treasury bonds are a bad choice now — the state guarantee and predictability they offer still have real value. But it's worth recognising that, under current conditions, retail bonds alone may not be enough to genuinely grow your wealth; at best they protect it, and not always fully.
Bonds or bank products — how to work out which wins
The natural question anyone setting money aside should be asking is: does a treasury bond or a classic bank deposit come out ahead right now? The answer depends on a few factors that are easy to miss when you only compare headline numbers.
What to weigh up
First, the time horizon. Three- and four-year bonds tie up your capital for longer (early redemption is possible, but for a fee), while banks regularly update their deposit and savings account offers, sometimes reacting to market shifts faster than the Finance Ministry adjusts bond terms. Second, tax: standard treasury bonds, just like interest on deposits and savings accounts, are subject to Poland's 19 percent capital gains tax, so there's no advantage either way on that front. Third, liquidity — if you might need the money quickly, it's worth keeping part of it in an account you can access freely. Before deciding where to park the rest, it's worth checking current personal account terms, so you have a convenient everyday tool and a safety buffer on hand.
Savings accounts have one real edge over four-year-plus bonds: flexibility. You can withdraw your money at any time without losing interest already accrued for previous periods, and banks have been actively adjusting their offers in recent months in response to rising inflation and competitive pressure. Before locking capital into bonds for several years, it's worth comparing them against the current savings account market — sometimes a flexible bank product with a solid rate ends up genuinely more rewarding than a treasury bond with a longer maturity.
A special offer for families — bonds with a higher coupon
One detail in October's Finance Ministry offer is worth highlighting for a specific group: families receiving the "800+" child benefit. Programme beneficiaries can buy special family bonds: a six-year series (ROS) paying 5.00 percent in the first year, with later periods calculated as inflation plus a 2.00 percentage point margin, and a 12-year series (ROD) paying 5.60 percent in the first year, with a 2.50 percentage point margin over inflation afterwards.
These bonds have one genuine advantage over both standard retail bonds and bank deposits — they're exempt from capital gains tax. That means the entire accrued coupon goes into your pocket, with no 19 percent deducted for the tax office. For families who already receive the benefit and are looking for a safe place to park long-term savings — for their children's future, for example — this is one of the few products on the market where the real return can genuinely outpace inflation, especially over the full 12-year horizon.
What you should do
- Don't judge treasury bonds by their nominal rate alone — work out the real return by subtracting current inflation (4.0 percent in September).
- If you're not an "800+" beneficiary, compare the bond offer against the current bank deposit rankings — a short-term deposit with a good promotional rate can sometimes beat locking capital into treasury paper for several years.
- If liquidity matters to you, consider a savings account — you can withdraw funds at any time, without waiting for a bond's maturity date.
- If you receive the "800+" benefit, look into the family bonds (ROS/ROD) — the capital gains tax exemption genuinely boosts your return compared with taxed bank products.
- Keep an eye on further Finance Ministry announcements and RPP decisions — the next rate-setting meeting is on 6-7 October, and its outcome could shape future bond offers and deposit rates alike.
Frozen bond rates against a backdrop of rising inflation are a sign not to keep all your savings in one basket. Weigh the current treasury bond offer against the banking market and pick a combination of products that genuinely protects the value of your money — not just on paper.